I have been absolutely baffled at the recent poll numbers putting an unpopular president ahead of Mitt Romney. The economy is terrible, no majority supports virtually any of the policies passed by this Administration, and there is no sign of improvement – yet Barack Obama still leads in most polls. So what gives?
There could be many explanations. Mitt Romney could be to blame. He has been criticized of running a sub-par campaign even though his fundraising (the true test of organizational strength) has at times eclipsed the incumbent president. Polls are rarely seen by pundits and casual observers alike as subservient to fundraising prowess yet this is a major mistake. It’s easy to say you’re with someone in a poll and it’s completely different to put your money where your mouth is. Case in point, Mitt Romney is down 15 points in New Jersey, yet to date he has raised more money in the state than Barack Obama.
The Obama strategy of gearing policies towards his base while aggressively mobilizing low information voters through pop culture might be working. It worked quite well in 2008 and is an effective strategy. There are going to be thousands to millions of voters who support the president in November because they think he’s “cool.”
The polls themselves may be biased. We all know the media slants left so it seems logical they would skew a poll towards their favored candidates. Although many of these polls have grossly oversampled Democrats, this seems unlikely. Although “news” organizations like MSNBC, CNN, and ABC would love to do all they can to help the president, the polls are still run by respectable pollsters who have their reputations to look out for. I would say incompetence is a better indicator than conspiracy when it comes to illogical polling numbers.
And yet there might also be another explanation – the Bradley/Wilder effect.
The Bradley effect, or more commonly (in Virginia anyway) known as the Wilder effect refers to voters being shamed into telling pollsters they support a black candidate when in actuality they do not. The voter feels guilty or wants to hide the fact they do not support the black candidate for fear of being labelled a racist. So they hide their real intentions until they can cast their secret ballot on Election Day. While the left would have you believe the Wilder effect is a veiled attempt by voters to hide their inherent racism, the fact of the matter is voters will be cautious due to the perception of racism.
In 2008 Barack Obama proved the Wilder effect did not play a part in his historic election. But on the other hand the “if you oppose Barack Obama you clearly are a dirty racist” mantra was not half as thick as it is today [Note: I'm desperately hoping some rabid liberal accuses me of being a racist for writing this]. The Obamanots have spent his entire presidency pushing this deranged attack. Is it not natural to be wary of such accusations? Who wants to be called a racist? After 3 1/2 years of hearing the same tired talking points does it not seem natural to believe it could at least be a possibility? Case in point:
The left’s despicable rule: Criticisms of Obama are racist
Janeane Garofalo & Joy Behar Racist GOP Attacks Obama More Than Any Other President In History
Samuel L. Jackson: ‘I Voted for Barack Because He Was Black’
Chris Matthews and MSNBC Now Claim the Word ‘Chicago’ Is Racist
Rachel Maddow: Romney’s welfare ad is ‘obvious dog-whistle racism’
MSNBC Host Actually Says Talking About Obama Golfing Is Racist Attempt to Link Him to Tiger Woods & Sex
MSNBC’s Touré: Romney Engaging In The ‘Niggerization’ Of Obama
Interrupting Obama Was Blatantly Racist Says MSNBC Panel
MSNBC brands Brewer a racist over Obama confrontation
Opposing Obama now officially racist
Media: Romney Is a Racist for Using the Word ‘Obamacare’
And the list goes on and on…
Criticizing George W. Bush was your patriotic duty but if you don’t shut-up and support the current president’s destructive and sophomoric policies then you’re a racist! We have heard this for some time now and it might be having an effect in the polls. Mind you this is just a theory. Obama has not always had a large lead in the polls so the Wilder effect clearly hasn’t been completely at play. One explanation for that could be that many people are just now starting to pay attention to the campaign. It’s about the time when those uninterested in politics and government raise their heads out of the sand once every four years and pretend they are doing their civic duty by committing 30 seconds or so to making a decision for whom to vote. Is it at least possible some are deathly afraid of being likened to a Klansman for expressing some dismay with the failed policies of the Obama Administration?
Chances are there is some combination of explanations for Obama’s rise in the polls. It has also led to Democratic candidates down the ticket appearing to gain some traction. I mean nobody really thinks Virginia’s most bumbling and ineffective governor Tim Kaine is going to win do they? Or Elizabeth “Sitting Bull” Warren? I suppose their perceived popularity could be real but how is this possible? What could possibly explain their sudden rise? Where is the rallying cry to support Democrats? The economy is terrible but we need Democrats to protect us from Bain Capital? Mitt Romney is rich and successful and this is a bad thing for some reason? Handouts for all? Mitt Romney is seen as more trustworthy and better able to handle most issues (including 51%-44% on the economy). So what is propping up President Obama?
Pay attention to what happens in the next few weeks. Whatever the reasoning behind the polls, we’ll figure it out soon enough.
Could the Wilder Effect be the Explanation Behind Obama’s Surge in the Polls?
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