I wanted to get on record with some predictions that I believe will happen regarding the 2012 presidential race. There are a number of items that I see the writing on the wall that I thought I’d pass on:
1. Herman Cain WILL NOT be the GOP nominee. In fact I think he will go into the Iowa Caucuses (unless they move them up to tomorrow or something) with the lead he has now almost completely evaporated. He has gained the attention of the national media and now is really being put under the microscope. Unlike someone like Mitt Romney, there are still many revelations and policy debates that will knock him down a peg. Plus he simply doesn’t have an organization capable of handling the influx of support that he currently enjoys. True, Mike Huckabee had an organization similar to the size of Cain yet he still found a way to win Iowa and some other key nominating contests. But he never was able to bring it to the next level and eventually died off. I don’t see Cain winning Iowa or any of the early primary states, if any. He’s not putting in the ground work necessary to get people to the polls. Plus 9-9-9′s effectiveness is predicated by his ability to sell a 9% sales tax and income tax to the American people. Even if the math does work, that’s a slippery slope.
2. Newt Gingrich will finish better than most people are giving him credit. I don’t see him winning any states just yet but I am starting to see some life in his campaign that could prove otherwise. Newt is one of those guys that conservatives generally like but are always upset with him for his latest boneheaded mistake: the Nancy Pelosi global warming ad, the Dede ScozzaFavva endorsement, the Paul Ryan budget criticism, and so on. But Newt has been there in the movement since 1994 and has built up a major following. He’s innovative and usually right on all the major issues. Newt Gingrich is viewed as family in the conservative movement. We don’t always get along but at the end of the day, we’re still family so there will always be a connection. He’s starting to creep up in some national polls and needs to show more in state polls before he’s considered a serious contender. Don’t count him out though.
3. Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee. I said that back in February and have seen nothing to dissuade that argument. He’s still viewed as the most electable nominee and that person usually gets the nod.
4. Michelle Bachmann needs to get out now. Ok, that’s not a prediction but it does need to be said. Her campaign was doomed the second she hired Ed Rollins. They did a good job getting rid of him, but it really was too little too late. They wasted valuable months with him at the helm. He has a penchant for saying crazy things and is well past his prime. Any campaign that is dumb enough to hire him is doomed to failure. While the media fawns over his hiring because of his work in the 80′s with Ronald Reagan, credible political consultants laugh hysterically when he gets a job. Bachmann is overcoached and not ready for the big time. She will finish third or fourth at best in Iowa which will essentially end her campaign. She should get out that night but I have a feeling her ego will keep her going, succumbing to more and more punishment until she is completely ignored in the media (double that for Ron Paul).
5. Speaking of Ron Paul, his support will fade by the time Election Day rolls around. People are selecting him in polls simply as a protest vote against establishment Republicans like Mitt Romney. Voters will come home though and Paul wins a big fat zero nominating contests. He probably sticks around as long as possible though just to keep his face in the media.
6. Rick Santorum will drop out probably on the night of the Iowa Caucuses. I suspect he’ll then try to run for Senate again in Pennsylvania or serve in a potential Romney Administration.
7. Jon Huntsman is a joke. He will leave this campaign with as little fanfare as he entered it. Maybe when he finally drops out, his incompetent campaign staff will at least spell his name right. Let’s hope this liberal Republican heads back to corporate America, never to return to elective politics. His campaign has had no coherent message, been combative, and an all around disaster. Apparently he’s boycotting tomorrow’s GOP debate. What idiot thought that would be a good idea? The debates are the only thing keeping you somewhat relevant! Do you really think you’ll curry enough favor with New Hampshire to help you in the primary? I bet no one notices he isn’t there.
8. Rick Perry will drop out sometime after South Carolina, wish he never jumped in so late, and go back to Texas and finish his term. From there he might then become a president of a Texas college. I’ve heard rumors of that for years. Fred Thompson is glad no one refers to him anymore for getting in too late in a presidential campaign as they now have a more recent and bigger disaster in Perry. Stick a fork in him, he’s done.
That’s all for now. Predictions closed.
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And Now Some Election 2012 Predictions
- 10.17.11 |
- 2012 Presidential Race, National Politics |
- Alan
Mixed Feelings on Gilad Shalit Prisoner Swap Herman Cain: Will your 999 help the Economy? Will it create American Jobs?
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